Air-source vs geothermal heat pump?

Air-source costs 60 to 70% less upfront but is 30 to 40% less efficient. Geothermal saves 50 to 70% on energy bills but takes 10 to 15 years to pay back the higher installation cost.

Heating Seasonal Performance Factor measures heating efficiency. Higher HSPF means lower heating costs. Look for HSPF 10+ for Energy Star qualification.

HVACHeat Pump Cost Calculator

Heat Pump Cost Calculator

Q: How much does a heat pump cost?

$6,500 to $13,500 installed for a standard air-source heat pump for a 2,000 sq ft home. Mini splits run $3,000 to $7,500. Geothermal costs $20,000 to $40,000 including the ground loop.

Q: What is the federal tax credit for heat pumps?

30% of the total installed cost under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Air-source heat pumps qualify for up to $2,000 per year. Geothermal systems have no annual cap.

Q: How much can I save with a heat pump?

$500 to $1,500 per year compared to an electric furnace or baseboard heating. Savings vs gas furnace are smaller at $200 to $600 per year depending on gas prices.

Q: How long does a heat pump last?

15 to 20 years for air-source and mini splits. 25 to 50 years for geothermal ground loops (the indoor unit lasts 15 to 20 years). Annual maintenance extends lifespan.

Q: Do heat pumps work in cold climates?

Modern cold-climate heat pumps work down to -15 degrees F. Hybrid (dual fuel) systems switch to a gas furnace backup below a set temperature for extreme cold spells.

Q: Is a heat pump worth it?

Yes for most homes, especially with the 30% tax credit. Replacing an electric furnace saves $1,000+ per year. Replacing gas saves less but eliminates fossil fuel dependence.

How much does a heat pump cost? Estimate equipment, installation, tax credits, and annual savings for air-source, mini split, geothermal, and hybrid heat pumps.

System Details

Home Size (sq ft)

Heat Pump Type

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Enter your home details for a cost estimate

Last updated June 3, 2026 by our expert review team

Total Cost by Heat Pump Type

$ installed

Mini Split$3,000 - $7,500

Air-Source$6,500 - $13,500

Hybrid$8,000 - $16,000

Geothermal$20,000 - $40,000

Before modeled incentives. Geothermal includes ground loop installation.

Expert Contributors

Creator

Ehsan Ghazanfari

Licensed Structural Engineer

Ehsan Ghazanfari

Licensed Structural Engineer

FISE-certified structural engineer with 11+ years designing bridges, retaining walls, and foundations. MSc from Aalto University.

See full profile

Expert Review

Hawkin

Certified Cost & Estimating Professional

Hawkin

Certified Cost & Estimating Professional

AACE-certified estimator working with 20+ insulation companies including the two largest franchises in America.

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Updated June 2026

How we verify our calculators

What Goes Into a Heat Pump Quote

The installed price is not just the outdoor unit. Equipment, labor, electrical work, controls, ducts or line sets, incentives, and operating cost all change the final decision. Use the calculator as a planning screen before comparing contractor quotes.

Editorial diagram showing a heat pump cost stack with equipment, installation, incentives, operating cost, local rebates, and quote comparison. — Heat pump planning is a stack: installed cost first, then incentives, local rebates, and yearly operating cost.

Pro Tips

Federal heat pump credits have eligibility rules, dollar caps, and dates. Check IRS guidance and Energy Star before assuming a credit on a quote.

Use our BTU calculator before getting quotes. Final equipment selection should still use Manual J and the contractor's system design.

Geothermal systems cost more upfront because of the ground loop. They can run very efficiently, but the payback depends heavily on local drilling, soil, utility rates, and incentives.

Hybrid dual-fuel systems pair a heat pump with a furnace. They can make sense where winter design temperatures or energy prices make all-electric heating harder to pencil out.

For ductless options, our mini split calculator provides room-by-room sizing and installation estimates.

Get at least three quotes from licensed HVAC contractors. Ask each bidder to separate equipment, labor, electrical work, ductwork, controls, and permit costs.

Local rebates change often. Check your utility, state energy office, and rebate marketplace before signing.

If ducts are leaky or undersized, the cheapest equipment quote may not be the best project cost. Duct repairs can change both comfort and budget.

How the Calculator Works

Enter your home size, heat pump type, existing heating system, and climate zone.

Equipment and installation costs scale by home size and climate. Colder climates need larger, more expensive systems.

Get total cost, federal tax credit savings, annual operating costs, and payback timeline compared to your current system.

Key Factors

Equipment cost scales with home size and climate zone adjustment.

Modeled credit: 30% of installed cost, capped at $2,000 except geothermal.

Savings = existing annual cost estimate - modeled heat pump operating cost.

Quick Reference

Modeled credit: 30%, caps vary
Air-source lifespan: 15 to 20 years
Geothermal lifespan: 25+ years
Min SEER (federal): 15 SEER2
Quote check: 3 bids

Common Questions

How much does a heat pump cost?

A standard air-source heat pump costs $6,500 to $13,500 installed for a 2,000 sq ft home. Mini splits run $3,000 to $7,500, while geothermal systems range from $20,000 to $40,000 including the ground loop.

What is the federal tax credit for heat pumps?

Federal rules can change and depend on equipment eligibility. This calculator models a 30% credit with a $2,000 cap for non-geothermal systems and an uncapped geothermal estimate. Confirm details with IRS guidance or a tax professional.

Air-source vs geothermal: which is better?

Air-source systems usually cost less upfront. Geothermal systems usually cost more because of the ground loop, but can be efficient and long-lasting where site conditions make sense.

How much can I save with a heat pump?

Savings depend on your current fuel, electric rate, climate, insulation, equipment efficiency, and ductwork. Replacing electric resistance heat is often the clearest savings case.

How long does a heat pump last?

Air-source and mini split heat pumps last 15 to 20 years with proper maintenance. Geothermal ground loops last 50+ years, though the indoor heat pump unit lasts about 25 years.

Do heat pumps work in cold climates?

Yes, many modern cold-climate systems can heat in low outdoor temperatures. Capacity and efficiency still vary by model, so cold-climate projects need careful sizing and backup planning.

What is HSPF?

HSPF (Heating Seasonal Performance Factor) measures heating efficiency. Higher is better. Standard units rate 8.2 HSPF while high-efficiency models reach 10 to 13. Geothermal systems achieve an equivalent of 13 to 15 HSPF.

Is a heat pump worth it?

It can be, especially when replacing electric resistance, oil, or aging AC plus furnace equipment. The best answer depends on quote quality, incentives, utility rates, and comfort goals.

Real-World Cost Examples

Small Home, 1,200 sq ft

Air-source, replacing gas furnace, moderate climate

Total Cost: $4,200 - $8,100

A smaller house usually keeps equipment and labor down. Gas replacement savings depend heavily on local gas and electric rates.

Medium Home, 2,000 sq ft

Air-source, replacing electric furnace, moderate climate

Total Cost: $6,500 - $13,500

Replacing electric resistance heat is often one of the clearest savings cases, especially when the home already needs cooling.

Large Home, 3,000 sq ft

Geothermal, replacing oil furnace, cool climate

Total Cost: $30,000 - $60,000

Ground loops make geothermal site-specific. Drilling, trenching, soil, and yard access can swing the quote more than the indoor unit.

Single Room Addition

Mini split, supplemental heating, warm climate

Total Cost: $3,000 - $7,500

Single-zone ductless work can be simpler when ducts are missing or a room addition needs its own comfort control.

Heat Pump Buying Mistakes That Cost You Money

Assuming the incentive is automatic

Eligibility depends on equipment, dates, tax situation, and documentation. Confirm the current IRS and Energy Star rules before signing.

Oversizing the heat pump

A unit that is too large can short-cycle and control humidity poorly. Ask for Manual J sizing, not just a quote based on square footage.

Ignoring ductwork condition

Leaky or undersized ducts can add cost and reduce comfort. A ductless option may be better for some rooms or additions.

Comparing only upfront cost

A lower bid may exclude electrical work, permits, controls, duct repairs, or cleanup. Compare the scope line by line.

Not checking local rebates

Utility and state rebates change often. Check local programs before choosing equipment, because eligible models and paperwork can matter.

Important Disclaimer

These estimates are for planning purposes only. Actual costs vary by location, material availability, and project complexity. Always get at least 3 local quotes. This calculator does not replace professional advice.